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Retrospective analysis in forecasting Russia’s escalation of the War against the West (on the example of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict)


Hryhori Perepelycia

Subject and Keywords:

factors ; imperative forecasts ; the Russian-Ukrainian war ; the likely scenario ; the predicted models of the Russian-Ukrainian war ; Russia's claims ; global domination ; hybrid war ; pacification ; Morel's plan ; aggressor country ; inter-civilizational confrontation


Predictions of the future European security are impossible without an understanding of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, namely: will it continue and in what form and with what results will this war end? Therefore, the author of this article has set himself the task of finding out: what consequences this war will have for Ukraine, Russia, European security and a wider international environment? To answer these questions, the author applied a retrospective analysis as the main forecasting method. The objective basis for this research was the Russian-Ukrainian war, the tendencies of their developments, which existed in the past and exist now. A retrospective analysis showed that all past Russian-Ukrainian wars were part of regional and World wars between Russia and the West. The results of the Russian-Ukrainian wars were completely determined by the victory or defeat of Russia in these large-scale wars with the West. Russia's victory over the West has always predetermined the defeat of Ukraine in all Russian-Ukrainian wars of the past. The consequences of these defeats were Ukraine's loss of its ethnic territory, which Russia either absorbed or shared with its rivals, depending on the outcome of the war with the West. Thus, the author came to the conclusion that under the conditions of Russia's victory over the West or establishment of its dominance in Europe, scenarios of Ukraine's "absorption" by Russia would be typical for Ukraine's forecast scenarios of Russian-Ukrainian relations. The likelihood of a repeat of such scenarios based on the results of the current Russian-Ukrainian war will be determined by the effectiveness of Russia's hybrid war against the West.

Place of publishing:



Instytut Studiów Międzynarodowych Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego

Date issued:


Resource Type:



ISSN 2300-4282



Is part of:

Dyplomacja i Bezpieczeństwo, nr 1 (5) 2017/2018

Access rights:

Rules of usage of Digital Library of Wroclaw University


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